Eye the underdogs

To answer that question, we are able to use the AccuScore simulation engine to get the predictions in easy-to-understand percentages, which we can compare to the odds offered by the bookmakers. So when you lose at home you lose by less. Bookies could go even further — skew the line even more towards the favorite — to try to make even more money again, at higher risk. 2. Arrogance Aids the Underdog

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

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Or perhaps a football favorite has a very strong defense, but they have been less impressive when they have seen an option-oriented favorite like they will face in the game in question. Differences in motivation — If a game has a heavy favorite then chances are pretty good that if both teams were playing their absolute best then the favorite would win. Sometimes those games come as a total surprise — an unfortunate one if you have bet on them. Other times, though, you can make a guess before the game starts that one team will be significantly more motivated than the other.

The most common example of this would be late in the season when the favorite has clinched a playoff spot or is all but certain to do so. They would definitely be favored — and probably significantly — if they were playing against a team at the bottom of the league. That cellar-dweller might be playing with a modified roster, though — using young players instead of their usual ones in an attempt to see where they are at for the next season.

Those young players could be playing at full intensity in an attempt to prove themselves and earn a job, and they could be especially motivated because they are playing against a good team. If that enthusiasm is matched up against a playoff-bound team that has no real incentive to win the game, and which has no goal greater than staying healthy for the playoffs, then the underdog could have a better than expected chance of winning.

That could mean that their line could be packed with value. For years the sports handicappers at Maddux Sports have been making money for us and our clients betting the strongest sports picks on the Internet. Maddux Sports feels that in this industry the best sports handicappers can charge less for their picks than the big name scamdicappers. Maddux Sports makes its money from repeat sports bettors that know the value of their bankroll. The information contained at this site is for entertainment purposes only.

Any use of this information in violation of any state, federal, or local laws is prohibited. Here are three situations where a heavy underdogs can be worth a closer look: More sports handicapping articles: Betting on underdogs is considered something only novice bettors indulge in - a short, sharp thrill that rarely yields results, because underdogs don't win.

Here are four reasons why betting on the underdog might not be such a bad punt. Sports betting is often just one big popularity contest. A named favourite, whether it's in boxing, football or horse racing, will always get more publicity and hype than their competitor.

For this reason, it's easy for bookmakers — and the betting public — to ignore the underdog. Spotting when this happens, can help you identify a good underdog bet. A successful football team, a seeded tennis player, a Formula 1 race driver on a winning streak: In football betting , the FA Cup is famous for this, because the games are for the most part one-off fixtures that will never be repeated.

A lower club being drawn against Premiership opposition is never expected to win. Because of this, there is no pressure on the underdog, no expectation, and therefore they have nothing to lose. Bookmakers will always decide odds on stats, facts and form. Magic, chance, serendipity and, most importantly, the psychological arrogance of the favourite, have nothing to do with deciding odds, but everything to do with a result.