Single match betting picks
This is known as data over-fitting and it is one of the problems that can occur in drawing conclusions from past data. There are several ways to avoid data over-fitting.
One way is to always ensure that you analyze a large set of data. Another thing you can do is to ensure your rules aren't too strict. If you make them too specific, you'll find yourself making very weak assumptions from a small data subset. It is so easy to be convinced that your analysis is completely correct, especially when it seems to show huge profits. However, if you keep the above information in mind you will stand a better chance of using rules for accurate soccer predictions.
If you want to lift your soccer predictions game to the next level, you need to check out the Poisson Distribution Model. This involves incorporating historical data in order to calculate the likely number of goals scored in a soccer match. If you're not great at math, don't worry. All you need to do is calculate the probability of the outcomes of a soccer match in goals-based markets. Although it has some faults and limitations, Poisson is a great approach which can help you understand the fundamentals of creating your own odds.
This method is better than some of the basic grading systems described above as they don't group teams together. To begin, you need to download the historical soccer data results. Then, you need to calculate the average number of goals each team scores within a certain number of seasons. Be sure to include home and away games too. These averages are then compared to the league average and are used to create the values for defensive strength and attacking strength for each team.
You can figure out the defense and attack by dividing average goals for and average goals against by the league average. These statistics, along with the opponent's are then put into the Poisson Distribution formula. This then discovers the probability of every result when the two teams face each other in a match.
These probabilities are then converted into odds which are then used to identify where there is value at an exchange of bookmaker. Although this method is very likely to produce accurate soccer predictions, you should not assume that other people aren't doing it already. In fact, there is a huge group of people who use this approach and thousands of other betting calculation methods. You may be wondering how many games you need in order to calculate the goal expectation figures.
If you only go with five seasons of days, you may find that you don't have enough information to produce the stats that are representative of all the teams. Usually, you need at least ten games worth of data that go into the new season in order to have something that is at least current to work with.
Like other forms of stats-based betting, the Poisson Distribution only considers the measurable results involved. However, we have all seen plenty of games where there was a team who dominated the match considerably but failed to score any goals. There have even been matches where the dominant team lost due to an unexpected goal, like a late penalty. Although the results of the match tell us the final score, they don't tell us what actually happened during the course of the game.
Another issue with the Poisson Distribution Method is that the probability of draws and a match with zero goals is completely underestimated. This can be rectified, however, using a method known as zero-inflation which can increase the probability of no goals. The Poisson Distribution Method can be improved greatly by including a more sophisticated statistic. This is known as Expected Goals. The purpose of the Expected Goals stats is to quantify attempts on goals.
This evaluates performances from a completely scientific standpoint. If you use it in your soccer predictions model, not only will it maximize your expected value, but it will improve the model's overall accuracy. There is always going to be a big asterisk when it comes to using any of the soccer prediction methods discussed here. To get the most accurate soccer predictions, you need to use a multitude of prediction methods. By using more than one system or multiple systems tied together, you can ensure that you can get the most accurate prediction possible.
Be sure to consider the weaknesses of each soccer prediction approach that was outlined above as well. This will help you to figure out the kinks of each method so you can ensure you get the most accurate soccer predictions. There are plenty of websites online which also give their own ideas on soccer predictions.
If you ever have any issues with your own data, you can compare it to what others have come up with. This can help you tweak your own homemade betting system for future games. By creating your own soccer predicting system, you can stay ahead of the other punters by having the most accurate stats and predictions. If you want some well-analyzed stats before you start making your own soccer predictions, then you need to go to the experts in betting.
For more information or to make an inquiry, click here! All can be true. Does he think that we do not have access to the scores of the games they played during the regular season? Kentucky's massive defensive turnaround since early February is remarkable.
Posted by Jeff at They are scoring an ungodly 1. Their best offensive efficiency in Big 12 play this season was 1. Before you say "momentum", if teams could carry "momentum" from game to game then this hot streak wouldn't have even happened, since Kansas had actually slid to a season-worst 10th in the Pomeroy ratings at the end of the regular season.
This hot streak is unsustainable long term, of course, but there is no more "long term". As we saw with Villanova last season, it's not that unprecedented for a team to get really hot for six straight games. If Kansas keeps scoring like they've been scoring the last three games, they're going to be almost impossible for anybody to beat. Let's get to today's games: North Carolina is the better team, but this is an awfully big spread considering how good Butler is. Rating systems like Sagarin and Pomeroy have the true line closer to 4 points.
North Carolina likes to get easy baskets off of offensive rebounds and in transition, yet Butler is strong both on the defensive glass and with transition defense. I expect this game to be slower paced than North Carolina likes it, and for this game to be decided in the final minute.
So do we really believe that South Carolina is suddenly as good as they've looked the last two games? Because it came out of nowhere, with them having gone down the stretch of the season. Sindarius Thornwell is obviously a fantastic player, but South Carolina's offense as a whole is really ugly 1.
As strong as their defense is, their one weakness is on the defensive glass, where they were just 9th in SEC play. Baylor led the Big 12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. And so even if both teams struggle to find open shots, I expect Baylor's advantage in easy put-back baskets to be the difference here. With two blue chip programs, two teams playing at blur-fast tempos, and two squads with elite offenses, this is going to be the premier game of the night for television ratings.
I like Kentucky here for two reasons, besides the fact that their defense is a lot better. The first is that Kentucky has always had a strong perimeter defense under John Calipari and this year is no different - they will be able to run UCLA's shooters off the three-point line better than most.
Second of all, UCLA is the significantly weaker rebounding team. So to me, the only way UCLA wins is if they shoot significantly better from outside. Wisconsin led the Big Ten in defensive efficiency while Florida's defense was rated by Pomeroy as the 3rd best in the entire nation. I do think that Wisconsin has two advantages in this game. First of all, Florida's defense is best at preventing three-pointers, yet Wisconsin's offense tends to work inside-out and is not particularly dependent on outside shots.
Second, Florida has struggled with defensive rebounding since losing John Egbunu, and Wisconsin is very strong on the offensive glass. Wisconsin is vulnerable to teams that can put them in foul trouble, but Florida just doesn't draw a lot of fouls, and they were just 9th in the SEC in offensive FTRate. In my opinion, Wisconsin is the slight favorite to win this game outright. Posted by Jeff at 7: This NCAA Tournament has lacked huge upsets and buzzer beaters, but it has been played at a really high level of basketball.
In general, the sport is just getting better and better each year as the talent pool grows deeper, but the lack of upsets also played a role in keeping the big boys in more games.
And in the end, the high quality of basketball has just made this a really entertaining product. And as we head into the penultimate weekend of the season, it's nothing but high quality of basketball ahead. And hey, who knows, maybe we'll still get a buzzer beater, too. This is a fair line, as most computer ratings have a healthy Oregon as a slight favorite Oregon, of course, is missing Chris Boucher. I don't think the Boucher absence will matter nearly as much as usual against Michigan, however, as the Wolverines are almost exclusively a perimeter shooting team.
Michigan has been playing remarkably well for the past couple of weeks, and maybe they will keep it up and Derrick Walton will continue his Kemba Walker impression, but if they don't then they don't particularly match up well with Oregon's weaknesses, and the Ducks are probably the better team.
Gonzaga -3 over West Virginia: West Virginia is a fantastic team as far as 4 seeds go. That said, Gonzaga is a strong 1 seed, and they have a team that is built to withstand Press Virginia.
They have depth, experience, and savvy in a backcourt led by Nigel Williams-Goss, Jordan Mathews, and Josh Perkins, and they have the front court length and talent to protect the defensive glass. This West Virginia team is more capable of scoring efficiently in the half court than other recent vintages of Press Virginia have been, but still not good enough to win a controlled-style game against a team as good as the Zags.
I chose Purdue outright in my bracket and I'm going to stick with that pick here. Kansas had an incredible game against Michigan State, though the final score was deceptive as to how big the margin was for most of the 40 minutes.
As a match-up, Purdue's biggest problem is going to be staying in front of Frank Mason. But Kansas's front court size is a concern as well, against a Purdue front line that had its way with Iowa State. As good as Josh Jackson is, Caleb Swanigan is better.
Arizona is the better team, and Xavier's demolition of Florida State was probably a bit of a fluke, but this is an awfully large Vegas line. Xavier has a ton of length and size, and they will be able to match Arizona body-for-body inside, even if they don't have a big man quite as skilled as Lauri Markkanen.
Offensively, Xavier passes the ball really well, and they have been surprisingly efficient offensively since losing point guard Edmond Sumner. A Xavier win would be an upset, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them play close enough to cover in a defeat. We had all hoped that the chalk-heavy first round meant that we would have some spectacular games in the second round, and we had a taste of that yesterday. In a lot of ways, however, Saturday was just an appetizer for Sunday.
Get ready to make a dent in your couch today. If Michigan shoots the lights out like they did against Oklahoma State, obviously they can win this game, but if the shots aren't falling at above season average rates, they don't match up well against Louisville. The Cardinals are ferocious defensively in the paint and will make it difficult for Derrick Walton to be as effective as he usually is with the dribble drive. Louisville should also be able to take advantage of Michigan's small front line on the glass.
Meanwhile, Louisville is vulnerable against teams that attack and draw contact Louisville was dead last in the ACC in defensive FTRate , but Michigan is just not that style of team.
This is a potential Revenge Game for 8-seed Kentucky knocking off 1-seed Wichita State three seasons ago, although none of the regulars on Wichita State's roster actually played in that game. As good as Wichita State has been, I'm worried about Kentucky's length here.
Both of these teams had uncharacteristically good performances and surprisingly large blowouts in their first round games. This is an awfully big spread, however, against a Michigan State team that has clearly been playing their best basketball of the season over the last month, with a fully healthy and dangerous Miles Bridges, and with the development of a really nice freshman crop. In addition, Michigan State's strong defensive rebounding is going to put pressure on Kansas to hit outside shots.
The Jayhawks certainly can shoot well If we believe this late season Arkansas spurt they've risen from 59th to 38th in the Pomeroy ratings over the last five weeks then this is too large of a spread even for a fully healthy Tar Heels roster. Arkansas doesn't have any match-up advantages, but they're a solid team and I'd be surprised if they get completely trucked. Defensively, Rhode Island matches up well with Oregon. If Oregon is not scoring particularly efficiently, and with a defense that has obviously taken a significant hit without Chris Boucher, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rhode Island wins this game outright.
USC has oddly been getting a lot of hype the last couple of days. I think it's because so many people really didn't see them play this season, being buried late at night and on the Pac Network. Baylor's defense, and their length in particular, are a further difficulty level from either Providence or SMU.
Baylor's elite rebounding they led the Big 12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding efficiency will challenge a USC team that was 10th in the Pac in defensive rebounding rate. I'm trying my best not to overreact to that tremendous South Carolina second half against Marquette, where they simply looked better than they've looked all season long.
But my real match-up concern here is Duke's ability to handle South Carolina's pressure defense, which led the SEC in both steal and turnover rates. Duke, as talented as they are on offense, does not have a real point guard, and they will potentially struggle with turnovers. If the Blue Devils get hot behind the arc, however, I'm skeptical that South Carolina's offense will be able to repeat anything like the 1.
I picked Cincinnati to win this game outright, and so I'm going to stick with my pick here. There are three reasons for that. First of all, UCLA is overrated, as Pomeroy has this game basically a toss-up though Sagarin has the spread closer to 4. Second, UCLA's dependence on outside shooting makes me nervous, particularly against a defense as long and athletic as Cincinnati.
Third, Cincinnati is an elite offensive rebounding team 20th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage , which could pose problems for a UCLA front line that is tall but not particularly physical. The counter-argument, of course, is that UCLA has the ability to put up points in bunches in a way that Cincinnati does not.
If the Bruins get hot behind the arc, they can obviously defeat anybody. But despite that, we have had some really good basketball games, and the lack of upsets sets us up for some absolutely fantastic second round match-ups. First round upsets are all fun and games until you end up spending your Saturday or Sunday watching a 12 and 13 seed playing each other.
This weekend will, instead, be packed with great match-ups. There are no bad teams left. Every team tipping off today has a legitimate argument that they deserve to be here, and should expect to be competitive.
Let's get to the match-ups: Notre Dame's depth and front court size are going to be tested by Press Virginia. Matt Farrell has been perhaps the most improved player in the nation this season, and his ability to take care of the ball against relentless pressure will be key to the Irish potentially winning this game.
One other advantage that Notre Dame has is their But aside from their match-up advantages, West Virginia has simply been the better team this season. Villanova -6 over Wisconsin: This game is an interesting contrast in styles. On one hand, Villanova is going to struggle to defend both Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes in the post, as they just don't have much big man depth after Darryl Reynolds.
On the other hand, Villanova's wings are so explosive and athletic that I'm not sure how Wisconsin can defend all of them either. Villanova is also a team that is awfully efficient offensively, while Wisconsin is a team that can get into a rut when their outside shots aren't falling they were falling, of course, in that Virginia Tech game. In the end, it's a tough call on this spread.
I'm going with Villanova because they hit Gonzaga over Northwestern: This is a big spread, but it's a fair spread. The difference in this game, more than anything, is Gonzaga's ridiculous size and height. In the first round, Dererk Pardon was able to defend 7-footer Luke Kornet by using his physicality and shoving the skinny Kornet out of the way, but that isn't going to fly against the monstrous Przemek Karnowski.
Without much in the way out of outside shooting Northwestern was 13th in the Big Ten with Florida State is the better team, but not by much, and this game could easily go down to the final possession. Florida State is a massive team, but they're vulnerable to teams that are aggressive in the paint. That said, if there's a quick whistle for both teams, Florida State has significantly more depth.
Middle Tennessee was a one point favorite against Minnesota, so it wasn't even an "upset" when they crushed Minnesota that final score was deceptively close, to be honest.
But Butler is not short-handed Minnesota, and their ability to pass the ball and executive on offense will challenge a Middle Tennessee defense that is not particularly strong inside. With a spread this small I'd only take Middle Tennessee if you really think they're going to win, and I expect Butler to pull this one out. I chose Saint Mary's to win this game outright in my bracket. Defensively, they have enough size to hang with Arizona. Jock Landale vs Lauri Markkanen will be a hell of a match-up.
Despite the Vegas line, most computer ratings have this game significantly closer - basically a toss-up. I'll take the points. This is an Elite 8 game in the 2nd round. The two teams are 8th and 9th in the Pomeroy ratings at the moment, and both are among the best defensive teams in the nation. Considering that Florida will likely not be getting as many baskets as they usually get off of turnovers, this game will likely come down to whether or not Florida hits their outside shots at a high rate.
This is definitely a game to enjoy, but it's not really one where anybody can have a strong opinion on who should be favored. Personally, I just think Virginia is a slightly better team than an Egbunu-less Florida. Purdue PK over Iowa State: Kauhajoki, Kauhajoen Koulukeskuksen Liikuntahalli. Oradea, Arena Antonio Alexe. Risskov, Vejlby Risskov Hallen. Fribourg, Site Sportif Saint-Leonard.
Saratov, Sports Palace Zvezdny. Pristina, Pallati i Rinise dhe Sporteve Prishtina. Szolnok, Tiszaligeti Sports Hall.
Porto, Pavilhao Dragao Caixa. Friday 21 September City, Arena: Tel Aviv, Shlomo Group Arena. Monday 24 September City, Arena: Tuesday 25 September Friday 28 September Wednesday 26 September