Money Line Betting
If we believe the Celtics have an even greater chance of winning, then we should back them at odds of This is basically what finding value is all about. When we think that a wager is more likely to win than the odds suggest, we should place that wager. As long as we're estimating those chances accurately, we should have no problem making an overall profit. It's important to note that finding value isn't necessarily about betting on what we think will happen. Backing them would be a wise decision if we believe their chances of winning are higher than Even though this means we actually think their chances of losing are higher than their chances of winning, we should still back them.
We'd be placing a wager with positive expected value, which should be everyone's goal when betting on sports. Earlier, we explained how the implied probability of is Notice these two probabilities total It's called vig, and it's basically a commission that they charge customers for placing wagers. By removing the vig, you can see what the fair odds on the game would be.
Many assume that because there's a 30 cents gap between the two lines, we just deduct 15 cents from the favorite and add 15 cents to the underdog. To remove vig correctly, we need to divide the total of the two implied probabilities by each individual probability.
So, in this case, we need to do the following calculations. The two results above are the no-vig probabilities. If you're sharp, you'll notice that adding We can now go to our odds converter and enter This will give us moneyline odds of If we enter We explain removing vig, and how this process helps us, in more detail in our article on handicapping the market.
Armed with the knowledge of how to remove vig, it's now possible to prevent yourself from making the same mistakes that the majority of bettors make. Most bettors understand the importance of line shopping i. A bettor shopping around for lines might be delighted to see the same favorite offered at and enthusiastically back the team at those odds simply because those are the best odds available.
So, placing a wager at odds of doesn't actually offer any value. For reasons hinted at, when shopping odds for what's expected to be a lopsided game, you need to find significantly better odds on the favorite's moneyline than on the underdog's moneyline. Value only exists when the odds are better than the fair price, or when you are confident that a wager has a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest.
By simply knowing this information, you become more knowledgeable than most recreational bettors who bet moneylines without really knowing how they work. When it comes to sports betting, sites usually offer one of these two bonuses: When the bonus is cash, there's no unique strategy outside of the usual sound handicapping required to gain an edge. When the bonus is free plays, however, some additional strategy comes into play. Please read our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on how these work.
Harder to make a bad bet — The betting public generally likes the favorites. As a result, the odds on favorites are often skewed in favor of the books. If you are on a heavy favorite on the moneyline, though, you might be facing a price of or Easier for most people to understand — The moneyline is actually quite simple, but for most people who are new to betting the point spread is easier to embrace and become comfortable with.
Key numbers are useful — The concept of key numbers — the spreads that are most commonly hit in the results of football games like 3 and 7 — are powerful and useful in handicapping. Key numbers are not applicable to the moneyline. Middling — Even casual bettors can occasionally happen upon middling situations — situations where the odds are set up so that you can bet on both teams at different sports book in the same game and ensure a great result either way — either a very small loss or a very large win.
Though theoretically possible with the moneyline this tool is far less common. Can easily have a strong winning percentage and still lose money with moneyline — As a general rule if you win 55 percent of your games betting on the point spread you are going to make some money.
If you are betting moneyline favorites, though, you could easily hit 65 percent of your picks and still lose money. Just have to pick a winner — For the teams that are involved in a game the only goal they care about is winning the game. Moneyline betting is only about who wins as well. It can be pretty or it can be ugly, but a win is a win. When you bet a favorite on the point spread you have to think not just about who is going to win, but when your team is likely to take the lead, how hard they will try once they get that lead, what personnel moves getting the lead may cause, and so on.
Moneyline betting involves fewer variables, and simplicity is a good thing. Unlike spreads and game totals in the above graphic, only one number is listed for the moneyline; that number represents the odds for each team to win.
The favorite is always the team with the lower number remembering that negative numbers are lower than positive numbers. For every major sport except soccer which includes draws , the moneyline will only offer two options: One team has to win the game. However, it can also be challenging to make a decent return when just betting the moneyline.
The biggest challenge with winning a reasonable return on the moneyline is that, often, there is a substantial favorite — particularly in sports like football and basketball — who is expected to and goes onto dominate. In such cases, your options are either to stake a lot of money to win very little, or hope for an upset that is far less likely to happen than the odds suggest.
Betting the Warriors repeatedly will see your bankroll grow very slowly, in the best-case scenario. Betting their opponent will, most nights, see your bankroll shrink. How do you determine your potential payout, precisely? The moneyline number is the potential payout. For wagering games between two evenly matched teams, or in cases where you are expecting a big upset by an underdog, the moneyline is where you want to look.