2018-19 NHL Odds Predict Vegas Will Regress, Ovechkin Will Impress

Strong can really coach a defense up, and the talent has been here for years in Austin for this defense to be one of the best in this conference. As for , the pressure will be dialed up just a notch. Surprising picks by proven model that predicted… September 17, The simulation did not run long enough to know. Anaheim 5 Dallas 3. TOP ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

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Projected Conference Standings

But before September, the standings are lying to you. You don't know what came before, and you definitely don't know what comes after.

A baseball season doesn't reveal its secrets until it's over. It's grand and beautiful in the micro sense plus there is beer , but it only makes sense in the macro. The odds take into account everything: Wins in the bank, future schedules, PECOTA BP's secret predictive sauce , the competition in both the team's division and league for postseason positioning, all of it.

They stir that together to give you one simple number: They simulate the season moving forward tens of thousands of times, and that number is the percentage of seasons the team would reach the postseason under that formula. It's basically the percent chance you have of making the playoffs at a certain snapshot in time.

This number tells me so much more than the MLB standings: A Dodgers three-game lead over the Giants is something very different than a Cardinals three-game lead over the Pirates -- particularly if other teams are in between them. The goal of baseball, because of its increasingly unpredictable postseason, is simply to make it to the playoffs: After that, as we saw last season, anything can happen.

These odds, which change dynamically every day throughout the season, show how likely you are to do that. Baseball Prospectus finally came out with its Playoff Odds Report this week , and I'm already obsessed. Let's go through division by division and see what odds seem high, or low.

The biggest surprise here is Tampa Bay, widely considered to have been left in the dust when Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman left for the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively. But this team still has a lot of young talent, and a lot of smart people in charge. If there's one team despairing from its number, it's Toronto. The Blue Jays believe this is the year they're finally going to end that playoff draught … but BP's odds doesn't even give them a 3-in shot.

So apparently no one is winning this division! This is as persuasive a snapshot that this division is going to be tight as you'll find: The odds are against every team making the playoffs. Obviously, one of them is going to do it, and B-Pro still likes Detroit to make one last desperate limp to October before the piper comes calling.

And wow, look at that Kansas City number: For a team that just came close to winning the World Series and brings almost everyone back save James Shields, of course , that does seem low. Do the Royals really have worse odds than the Astros to make the playoffs? The Playoff Odds Report thinks so. You currently have javascript disabled. Several functions may not work.

Please re-enable javascript to access full functionality. Posted 06 September - Colorado leads the NL West by 1. The odds given they make the playoffs are, well, odd. Tom mentions that these odds were from the end of August.

At that time, the Rockies were still in 3rd place, 1. We hope so too. That could be a pretty good series at least for Colorado.

You'll have to give us the lowdown on your observations. Really hoping I feel well enough to go, cause I think it will come down to the very end with them. Pretty compelling games in the meantime too -- 7 game homestand vs the Dodgers and Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, and a 6 game road trip vs those same 2 clubs the following week.

If you've got MLB. TV and you can't stomach the Twins anymore, these look like some great games! Posted 07 September - Community Forum Software by IP. Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins. Javascript Disabled Detected You currently have javascript disabled. Recent Articles Week in Review: MIN 9, KC 6: KC 10, MIN 3: Cleveland's Progressive Field by John Bonnes. Recent Blogs Contention for and Beyond by stringer bell.

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