How Much Is It Worth?
Now they are closer to the rule, and that impacts the number of races a horse can have. Since we have seen two horses - Animal Kingdom and Big Brown - win with four career starts, and two - Always Dreaming and American Pharoah - with five starts. So, five wins isn't the hard line that it used to be, but we still haven't seen less than four, and even less than five isn't yet frequent.
And that makes things very interesting this year - favorite Justify has run just three times, and Magnum Moon is among those with four starts. Both will be working against trends - especially Justify - if their immense talent leads them to victory. Hofburg will be looking to overcome history like Justify and win in just his fourth career start. Noble Indy has four career starts like stablemate Magnum Moon. It's far from surprising that Pletcher's horses are all among the lighter-raced runners - he is one of the more patient trainers out there and has repeatedly shown disregard for the 'rules' of Derby training.
This is another trend that gets a lot of talk most years, but is especially significant - and prominently discussed - this year because of Justify and Magnum Moon. All thoroughbreds celebrate their birthday on Jan. Ever since Apollo won the Kentucky Derby back in , no horse has won the Derby without at least one race as a two-year-old - so, a race in the calendar year before their Derby, in other words.
In the last 62 years there have been 52 horses that have tried, and failed, to replicate Apollo's feat. This 9 furlong trip seems perfect for him and with Equibase Figure efforts in his last start and the Hollywood Derby to run back to, Channel Maker has a legitimate shot to upset the field here. Synchrony 7 is already where Channel Maker may be after the race, having won two 9 furlong stakes races in a row this February and March. There is no sign of declining form and jockey Bravo has ridden him beautifully in both races and rides right back.
Kurilov 3 was last seen running against the very strong turf star Heart to Heart, finishing 2nd by a neck in the same race Channel Maker had traffic trouble in. That was Kurilov's third start in the U. Heart to Heart came out of that race to win the important Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile and the horse Kurilov beat for 2nd came back to win the Grade 2 Pan American Stakes so Kurilov could follow in their footsteps to win as well.
Shining Copper likes to lead early but rarely gives in while Camelot Kitten compliments his stablemate's running style as a closer. About the favorites, Beach Patrol 10 and Deauville 1 , and why they aren't on the contender list.
Beach Patrol finished 2nd in this race last year after leading late and the year before lost a tough decision in the American Turf which is for 3 year olds.
It's not that he can't win, but when comparing physical condition to many of the others, all who can run about as well, and the fact Beach Patrol tends to lose stretch battles settling for 2nd after leading , I'm going to take a stand against him. He comes in from England off a 2nd of 8 finish when heavily favored and with the track comment "Not enough," which is similar to when he ran last summer in the states in the Arlington Million, rallying from 4th to make the lead in the stretch only to get passed by two horses and end up third.
Channel Maker 5 to win at 7 to 2 or more. Add a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher. Synchrony 7 can be considered for a win bet at about the same 7 to 2 odds. Kurilov 3 might also be playable as a win bet, at about 4 to 1 or higher. An additional exacta may be warranted keying the two top picks as follows: My picks Bolt d oro Audible To finish in top 3 Solomoni promises fulfilled longshots worth a look.
He was claimed last out while drawing off to win by 4 lengths for his second win in a row, by very sharp connections.
They move him up in class, he has a win over this track, and an winner would be a great way to start our day. Race 2 Churchill Picks 2 stars 2 Summer Luck-finished second last out in a tough allowance race at Keeneland that was washed off the turf. She has a win in her only start over this track and looks like the one to beat.
Race 3 Churchill Picks 6 Irish Freedom-Fresh off his huge score in the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, trainer Cox removes the blinkers from this west coast invader. Race 4 Churchill Picks 2 stars 9 Irish Territory-came off an 8 month layoff, had a rough trip, but still ran a decent race last out at Keeneland.
He needed that race, shows a fast work since, and Mott is great at cashing bets on big days. He has certainly been taking on tougher, runs well fresh, and should out class these. She has won all 6 of her starts here and has won 2 of 4 with a second at this distance. She is coming off a huge win in the grade I Madison at Keeneland last out while racing on a dead rail.
She has the inside today, speed was tough yesterday, and she is one of our best bets today. Race 7 Churchill Picks 8 Madame Stripes-long shot play both trainer and rider have been hot and we will get a big price on this one. Race 8 Churchill Picks 7 Limousine Liberal-another runner who does his best running over this track. He has won 5 of 7 with a second here.
He missed by a neck last out while coming off a 5 month layoff in a grade III at Keeneland. He needed that race, shows a bullet work since, and will prove tough to hold off. Race 9 Churchill Picks 2 stars 1 Speed Franco- has won 2 of 6 with losses of a neck, a neck, and a length, or he would be a perfect 6 for 6.
He has the inside, has speed, and is always the one to beat. Race 10 Churchill Picks 2 stars 8 Maskk colt is a perfect two for two to begin his career for trainer Brown. Castellano is back aboard looking to make it three for three. Race 11 Churchill Picks 3 stars 10 Beach Patrol- classy horse has a record from 17 starts with 2. He just missed his third win in a row last out when he missed by less than a length in the Breeders Cup Turf. We are expecting trainer Brown to have a big day.
In a race with a large field, the post positions make a great deal of difference at the start. One racing analyst calls No. This year that distinction goes to Solomini a 30 to 1 long shot. Posts 18, 19 and 20 have yielded a combined one winner, with nine finishing in the money.
Vino Rosso is currently 12 to 1 and is the most likely to put an end to that trend on Saturday at No. While no owner, trainer or jockey wants No. Ten champions have started from the No. Of course, what jockey is aboard the horse matters as well when it comes to post draws, Several jockeys prefer to remain outside while other prefer to race for the first turn from the middle.