So how do we actually create a predictive model for football games based on Poisson distribution?
This is worth 5 points in rugby union and 4 points in rugby league. In rugby union, the ball is usually in play for about 35 minutes. In rugby union, the pitch is 70 meters wide and a maximum of meters long. This is not allowed in union play. Drawing large viewership and crowds, it is regarded as one of the most popular rugby competitions on the planet. Super League — The main rugby league competition in Europe, it includes 13 English teams and one French team.
Each team plays 27 games from February to September, and then an eight-team playoff occurs to determine the Grand Final champion. It has been held annually since , and it includes amateur, semi-pro, and professional teams. William Hill Products Skip to main content.
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Rugby Union Betting at William Hill. Handicap Betting 80 Minutes Betting. Either Team to Win Both Halves. Competitions Markets Six Nations Outright. Alert - your bet has not been placed.
Now comes the fun part; deciding on where to place your bets. You have your own odds and now need to compare these against the odds from bookmakers. This is the core of value betting which was discussed in a previous article. If you get value, then you bet — although you may wish to qualify out some bets by doing additional research to see which players are injured, motivational factors, played in Europe mid-week etc.
The below is used for illustrative purposes, but gives you an indication of the type of thing you may find when comparing the odds.
In this scenario, the value is with backing the draw, backing the Aston Villa win and backing Under 2. Now go make some profit!
If everything looks OK with the model, you will then need to expand it to include the same calculations for every other game in that league. At the moment, we are only calculating the odds and bets for one match. Rather than use the same table, it makes sense to set up another 9 of these tables so that you can do one for each league game.
It will be time consuming to start with, but try to get to a point where the spreadsheet can be as automated as possible — a version 2. For instance, with my model, I input the fixtures, then the attacking and defensive metrics are calculated automatically. This is then pulled through to another sheet where the Poission Distribution formula calculates all of the odds. I then only need to manually add the odds for all of the games directly from the bookies, then the spreadsheet tells me which bets to place.
The model stays the same, the only difference is the inputs. As games progress and results are known, you will need to include these in your calculations. If your model is working on data from last season and not including data from this season, then it is likely to be out of date. In Steps 2 and 3, we used either a list of results or the league table to work out the numbers of goals and averages. You need to find a way of incorporating these most recent results in your calculations.
I simply add these to my list of results and ensure the formulas cover the new results. You may also choose to remove old results that you deem to be too long ago and now redundant.