Fixed Odds Sports Betting Chart
That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7. The actual MGM price was , so in this example the under 7. The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs.
Marlins game, you can bet over 7. We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7. The Hilton price on over 7. If we assume under 10 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under So the under If we assume over So the over 10 at the Hilton is better. If we assume over 8. The over 8 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 is the better bet. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors.
The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs.
A popular proposition bet in baseball is whether or not a run will be scored in the first inning. It is pretty obvious that the probability of a run in the first inning would be highly correlated to the projected total.
The following table shows the number of games with a run in the first inning, according to the total. The lower right cell shows an overall probability of at least one run in the first inning of Here is what that looks like in a graph. The blue line shows the actual percentage of games with a run in the first inning by estimated total runs, from 6. The red line is called a "least-squared" regression line, which smooths out the ups and downs by showing the line that best matches the game total to the probability of a first-inning run.
I also considered whether it mattered if the game had a big favorite. Given the same total, I found that that money lines on the game didn't affect the probability of a first-inning run.
In baseball, the odds are often different depending on whether a bet is on the under or over the projected total runs. For example, in a game on April 13, , between the Brewers and Braves the total is 7. Given the pressure on a high total, that would indicate an increased probability of a run in the first inning. What I suggest to adjust for that is to use the following modified formula when there is unequal demand between the over and under. Let me explain "favoritism points on the over.
For example, if the sports book has a cent line on the total, meaning the under and over are 20 points apart, then the following table shows the number "favoritism points on the over. The table above shows 5 favoritism points. So the probability of a run in the first inning is:. The table above shows -5 favoritism points. If you're using a sports book with other than a cent line on the total, then adjust the favoritism points accordingly.
A look at actual lines on this prop shows that most sports books set them well enough to not find an advantage either way. However, I found one book that seemed to favor the "no" on this prop, often making betting on a first-inning run a good value. It is good to try to bet at such places early, to beat the other sharp bettors.
Fun Facts The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from to Additionally, fixed odds bets are based on picking the actual winner of the contest, not using a point spread.
Unlike pari-mutuel wagering, where odds change continually depending upon the wagering pool and betting trends, fixed odds never fluctuate. Fixed odds wagers, which are also known as money lines, differ from point spreads and parlays in that the winner of either of the latter bets is determined not by which team wins or loses but by how well the gambler plays the spread.
Fixed odds bets are usually available on the major US sports of football, baseball, basketball and hockey. Consider this hypothetical fixed odds money line in a game between Pittsburgh and Arizona.
If you already know how fixed odds sports betting works click here for a chart of break even percentages and conversions. If you went with the Cardinals the odds were long, paying well. Of course, if you took a spread bet in the big game and chose Arizona, you won. The Steelers were at Pittsburgh did not beat the point spread but did win the money line wager.
However, there are a few problems with this type of wager. First, wagering on the underdog in a money line scenario tends to be extremely attractive since the payout is always better than that given to the favorite. That means that bettors may try to outsmart the money line by determining which clubs will pull an upset.
Second, bettors usually have to wager a lot on the favorite to win a little. Although the bet on the favorite is less risky, the bettor is risking a load of money. On moderately priced point spreads the team that wins the game straight up normally covers the spread the majority of the time so a bet against the points spread is often a much smarter wager.
Playing a heavily favored team on the money line is part of a conservative risk reward betting strategy that, over the course of time, can payoff. At times, it can be safer than going with the point spread but be careful laying bridge jumper type prices as eventually one of those long shots will lose putting a big dent in your bankroll. Below you will find a table that gives you the correct conversions of the different types of fixed odds used in the sports betting marketplace.